When Amazon arrived late to India’s quick commerce party

In December 2024, Amazon India made what many considered a puzzling move: launching Tez, their 15-minute delivery service, into a market already crowded with aggressive players. As someone who has spent years studying market entry strategies, this decision was fascinating. Here was a global giant, known for its strategic precision, entering a space where Blinkit, Zepto, Swiggy Instamart, and others had already carved up the territory with over 2,500 dark stores.

The conventional wisdom screamed ‘too late’. But a deeper analysis of this phenomenon for the latest case study revealed something far more nuanced about late-mover strategies in oligopolistic markets.

The late-mover penalty myth

We’ve been taught that first-movers capture the lion’s share of emerging markets. Research on India’s quick commerce evolution shows this assumption needs serious re-examination. The reality is more complex, particularly in markets characterised by rapid infrastructure development and evolving consumer behaviour.

What struck observers about Amazon’s entry wasn’t the timing—it was the strategic calculation behind it. While competitors were locked into operational models designed for early market conditions, Amazon had the luxury of observing, learning, and designing for the market as it was becoming, not as it had been.

Gateways to entry in oligopolistic markets

Analysis of Tez’s market entry reveals what can be termed ‘gateways to entry’—strategic openings that late entrants can exploit even in mature oligopolistic markets. These aren’t just gaps in service or geography; they’re structural opportunities created by the very success of early movers.

First, incumbent lock-in works both ways. The same operational commitments that give early players their competitive advantage also constrain their strategic flexibility. Blinkit’s strength in 10-minute delivery excellence, for instance, makes it harder for them to pivot towards Amazon’s potential strategy of integrated shopping experiences.

Second, regulatory evolution creates opportunities. The Indian market shows that regulations around dark store operations, delivery partner classifications, and consumer data usage were still evolving. Late entrants can design their operations around anticipated regulatory changes rather than retrofitting existing models.

Third, consumer segment maturation opens new pathways. Early adopters and mainstream consumers have different needs. Amazon’s entry coincided with quick commerce’s expansion beyond urban millennials to suburban families—a segment where Amazon’s brand equity in trust and reliability carries substantial weight.

The oligopoly dance

This case illuminates strategic decision-making in oligopolistic markets. Unlike textbook examples, real oligopolies involve players with asymmetric strengths, different strategic commitments, and varying degrees of flexibility.

The analysis reveals that successful late entry requires what can be called ‘asymmetric differentiation’—not just being different, but being different in ways that exploit the structural constraints of existing players. Amazon’s potential lies not in out-executing competitors on their chosen metrics, but in redefining what success looks like in quick commerce.

Consider the possibilities: integrating quick commerce with Amazon’s recommendation engine for grocery discovery, leveraging Prime membership for customer retention, or using Amazon’s broader ecosystem to create switching costs that pure-play quick commerce companies cannot match.

Lessons for emerging market strategies

This case reflects broader patterns observed in how global technology companies approach emerging markets. The old playbook of transplanting successful Western models is obsolete. Success now demands a deep understanding of local market dynamics, regulatory nuances, and consumer behaviour evolution.

Research identifies three critical success factors for late-mover strategies in emerging markets:

Asset recombination: Successful late entrants don’t build from scratch; they recombine existing assets in novel ways. Amazon’s logistics network, customer base, and technology infrastructure weren’t sunk costs—they were potential springboards for rapid scaling.

Regulatory foresight: Understanding not just current regulations but their likely trajectory provides significant strategic advantages. Companies that design for tomorrow’s regulatory environment rather than today’s often find themselves better positioned as markets mature.

Ecosystem thinking: Late entrants often succeed by creating broader value propositions that transcend immediate category boundaries. The question isn’t just ‘How do we deliver groceries faster?’ but ‘How do we create customer relationships that competitors cannot easily replicate?’

Implications for business strategy

Reflection on the Amazon Tez case and its broader implications reveals several insights for business leaders facing similar strategic decisions:

Looking ahead

The Amazon Tez case study offers more than just insights into India’s quick commerce market. It provides a framework for understanding late-mover advantages in oligopolistic markets globally. Whether we’re talking about electric vehicle infrastructure in Europe, digital banking in Southeast Asia, or autonomous delivery systems worldwide, the strategic principles remain relevant.

Cases like Amazon’s Tez entry are particularly valuable because they challenge assumptions about competitive strategy. They remind us that in business, as in chess, sometimes the most powerful moves come not from acting first, but from understanding the board better than anyone else.

The real test for Amazon’s Tez won’t be whether it can match competitors on their chosen metrics of speed and scale, but whether it can redefine the game itself. That’s the ultimate late-mover advantage: the ability to change the rules while others are still playing by the old ones.

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