Working Paper: Inflation outcomes across Indian Prime Ministers: A comparative analysis, 1947–2025
January 27, 2026
Abstract
This paper compares inflation outcomes across Indian prime ministers since independence, treating the individual prime minister as the unit of analysis and a proxy for a broader fiscal and political regime. Using Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation as the primary historically comparable series and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation as a supplementary measure where data permit, we construct monthly inflation profiles by aggregating all periods in which each prime minister held office. The analysis is complemented by a global benchmark, comparing Indian CPI inflation with U.S. CPI inflation since 1980. The descriptive evidence documents a sharp regime shift in India’s inflation dynamics after 2014. Relative to earlier regimes, the post-2014 period is characterised by lower average inflation, reduced persistence of high-inflation episodes, and a marked compression of the inflation differential vis-`a-vis the United States as global proxy. These patterns are robust across inflation measures and are not obviously explained solely by favourable global inflation conditions. The paper discusses supply-side reforms, changes in energy price transmission, welfare delivery mechanisms, fiscal stance, and institutional developments as plausible contributors to this shift.
Keywords: Inflation; India; Wholesale Price Index; Consumer Price Index; Political Economy; Macroeconomic Regimes.
Suggested citation:
Shekhar, V. (2026). Inflation Outcomes Across Indian Prime Ministers: A Comparative Analysis, 1947–2025. SPJIMR Mumbai. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18254492
Download PDF Preview PDF
